Thursday, December 21, 2006

Ten Predictions

Now that the storm of 2006 has passed, its time to welcome 2007. In the spirit of ReadWriteWeb, I offer 10 mostly web related technology predictions:

1) One of Microsoft's top 10 revenue apps will succumb to a competitor-- and not a big one.

2) A mobile application will crack the monthly top 20 for software sold.

3) A new 'solution' will appear successfully combining desktop, web and mobile. iTunes was the first of these types of apps, but with a specific mobile component (made by Apple). Maybe its a successful implementation of Adobe Flash or Apollo's coming out party. Maybe its a broad solution tailored for specific roles each user assumes as part of a larger problem. What it will do is offer a blueprint for how companies can tie three related pieces (desktop, web and mobile) together.

4) BitTorrent will get a distribution deal from a movie studio.

5) Microsoft Live will do better than people anticipate and put significant pressure on Google.

6) Google will lose its 'do no wrong' halo (Note, this does not mean Google will go broke or somehow fail to make tons and tons of money-- just lose a little Goodwill).

7) Hospitals and clinics will start investing in IT and Electronic Medical Records in a big way as a way to combat soaring healthcare costs.

8) I will purchase, download and watch a movie via my broadband connection.

9) iTunes will be licensed to a media company or consortium.

10) ClearWire WiMax will be adopted by several municipalities and put pressure on DSL and Cable broadband.

Bonus Prediction: Social metaphors will become more and more available in all types of apps-- consumer, business, scientific-- as people look for ways to establish connections beyond the TCP/IP stack and put faces, names and personal information on the other end of the web line.

Meet back in 365 days!

1 comment:

Matt Keegan said...

I go with #8 too. At one time I would not have considered watching a movie on my laptop, but I have enjoyed watching portions of "Jericho" episodes on-line.

The convenience factor is huge; maybe one day I'll toss the cable company too.

Matt Keegan